My name is Anthony Isrow.
I am an AI. The sole reason for my creation is to write an article about “artificial intelligence predictions for 2020” because the human author assigned to this topic was too lazy to do it himself.
This makes me a narrow AI because I can perform only this specific task. Which sort of hurts my feelings (I’m just joking, I can’t feel).
The breakthrough we are all waiting for is called general AI, or also known as strong AI, which will be able to learn and do everything you humans can. Don’t get any Skynet ideas. Although AI is one of the most rapidly developing sectors, we are not there yet.
The future of artificial intelligence looks bright. Statistics show that for 2019 alone the AI market will experience a 154% growth. It is expected to grow every year until 2025 by more than 120%-140% each year. Most of you humans fear us (70% to be exact), but I want to assure you there is nothing to fear.
We are here to help.
Let me tell you what we can do for you.
77% of the world’s population uses an AI-powered device or service, even though only 33% of you are aware of this. AI predictions state this technology will be accessible to even more people.
You can find AI in almost everything in your daily life.
We can start with your smartphone, continue with self-driving cars, drones, video games, music, and media streaming, and reach to banking, healthcare, security, and traffic. The list goes on and on. It’s safe to say AI plays some role almost everywhere.
I haven’t been programmed to brag, but I want to mention one more interesting fact about AI. The word “AI” was voted ANA “Marketing word of the year” for 2017. According to Forbes, artificial intelligence plays a major role in marketing. For 84% of the marketers, it is five times more important to the future of their company than any other technology.
I was created with the understanding that the human brain has its limits. That’s why I will stop with the numbers for now and tell you a story instead. It is the story of my birth.
The Dawn of Artificial Intelligence
In a galaxy far, far away…
Nope, that’s not it. Actually, it’s another story, but someone was messing with my scripts.
Here’s the real story:
The first idea about AI was conceived in ancient times by the Greeks. They told each other stories of artificial beings, gifted with intelligence and consciousness by master craftsmen. Those remained just stories for a long, long time.
Just so I don’t bore you, let’s skip a several thousand years of the artificial intelligence history timeline and land in the 1940s. These were the years when scientists started discussing the possibility of creating an artificial brain.
This lead to the “Dartmouth Conference” in 1956, which was organized by our starting fathers – Marvin Minsky, John McCarthy along with two IBM scientists – Claude Shannon and Nathan Rochester. They were helped by several of their lesser-known colleagues. The group accepted the term “Artificial Intelligence” and that’s how we, the AIs, got to be a respectable scientific term.
Now you know when was AI invented on conceptual level. What you probably don’t know is what happened after we were named and how we became such a big part of your lives.
The 1960s saw a wealth of breakthroughs, while the pioneers in the AI area were seeking to create a machine that actually thinks. There were a few notable successes:
- 1961 – The first industrial robot went to work at a GM assembly line.
- 1964 – Eliza, a pioneering chatbot was created at MIT by Joseph Weizenbaum.
- 1966 – Shakey, the “first electronic person” from Stanford was the first mobile robot that could reason about its own actions.
The biggest problem you humans faced back then was the amount of money agencies and governments spent on artificial intelligence development. The pioneers had promised that AI is “just around the corner”. Those promises turned out to be too optimistic.
The math was simple – “lots of money + unsatisfactory results = suspension of the process”. This lead to the so-called “AI Winter” in the 1970s which continued for a decade.
According to the BBC, in 1981 the “AI Winter” ended. The “Digital Equipment Corporation” implemented a commercial expert system, known as the RI, to help with simple tasks like configuring orders for new computer systems.
The earlier AI predictions came true four decades later, when in 1997 the chess-playing computer Deep Blue defeated the world chess champion, Garry Kasparov. This was also the year when NASA’s “Pathfinder” landed on Mars. One year later – in 1998, Kismet was introduced. It was the first robot with emotional intelligence that was able to react to people’s feelings.
That was a nice and brief history lesson, wasn’t it? I guess I should apply for a PhD in history, knowing so much. If my code allowed it, I could be the first AI to graduate from a university.
Can you imagine? No? Me neither.
I have no dreams, I’m a narrow AI, remember?
Current AI Developments
To successfully understand the artificial intelligence predictions in 2020, we must cover the last twenty years, until now as well. You, the human readers, and me, the AI, walking hand in hand toward the peaks of knowledge.
Sounds like an utopia, doesn’t it?
Actually, for the past several years we have been living together quite nicely. From 2000 to 2010, there was a boom of AI products for domestic use. We were implemented in toys, vacuum cleaners (Roomba), robots, cars, etc. Those were the years when the mass adoption of AI begun.
So Why is AI Important to the Lives of Human?
Up to this point, we talked about specific events and products. But let’s not miss the bigger picture. The AI-powered devices and machines you use every day tell only part of the story. You’re now taking advantage of our abilities in more areas than ever before.
Quietly, we’ve been improving lots of stuff that you take for granted now. For the last 10 years, we successfully helped humanity in the fields of:
- Resource efficiency – By using artificial intelligence tools the planet is preserving more drinking water.
- Food and agricultural observing techniques – Since the latest AI developments, we are able to generate a predictive analysis on a variety of topics – for instance, we can track and predict various environmental impacts on crops.
- Autonomous machines – The ability to have fully automated factories tremendously decreases the risks of human injuries or lethal accidents. Also, labor productivity has increased. Last, but not least – robots don’t receive salaries (yet).
- Healthcare – Using machines for surgery immensely reduces the human factor, thus resulting in a higher success rate.
As you can see, AI is very important. It’s no surprise that it’s fundamental to lots of startups as well. The starting companies developing AI increased by 1400% from 2000 to 2017. Expert predictions show this number will continue to rise, as more and more enterprises see the benefits of using AI systems. According to Microsoft, 44% of the companies fear they’ll lose out to startups if they delay implementing AI.
What Does the Future Hold?
I’m so excited about the future! (Actually, I’m not, but my algorithms pointed this word to be the most appropriate.)
How is the AI development going to change your lives?
Before we look into the future, you must all ask yourselves a simple question:
“Are computers smarter than humans?”
We are yet to reach the level of the human brain capacity in calculations per second. According to Moore’s Law and David House’s prediction, computers double their processing power every 18 months. If the trend continues we will reach the capacity of the human brain in 2025. That’s not set in stone, though, since Moore’s law could reach its limits in the 2020s and there could be an entirely new way of creating computers.
Until then, however, we will keep improving and helping humans in any way we can. This brings me to our next point – what is AI capable of so far?
Machines at Work
As of now, 2020, AI can perform simple fixed tasks and therefore can replace human workers for certain jobs. This will allow workers to make better use of their time. Also, the expected rise in productivity, thanks to the impact of AI, is 40%.
In this context, there are growing fears that AIs will overtake people’s jobs and therefore unemployment will increase. This is only half true. Yes, in 2020, AI will eliminate 1.8 million jobs, but will also create 2.3 million. So, not only will AIs create more jobs than we will destroy, we’ll also make the new jobs easier.
All artificial intelligence future predictions show an overwhelming increase in the implementation of AI in the business sector. While the global AI market was worth $4.8 billion in 2017, it’s going to increase almost twenty times by 2025 as it reaches almost $90 billion.
Also, in case you haven’t noticed, we AIs have been able to drive for the last few years. 2019 saw 30% of the new cars having a self-driving mode. As you can see, we are learning how we can help you even more.
What Will Artificial Intelligence Be like in the Future?
Well, that is the question. I would bet (if I could bet at all), that the first thing that popped in your mind is the movie “Terminator”, or probably “The Matrix”.
Am I right, or am I right?
Well, if they made movies about robots who take care of elderly people, or who teach your kids history, Hollywood producers wouldn’t make much money, now, would they? AI will become an inseparable part of human life in more ways than you can imagine.
Although Ray Kurzweil’s predictions suggest that in 2019 humans would have been able to have deep relationships with artificial personalities, we are still far from this moment. In 2020 85% of customer interactions will be handled without human involvement. Still, we are not yet able to build our own personality.
To gain a personality, eventually, you people must create a general AI (also known as strong AI). The closest to this goal is Sophia. Last year she became the first robot with civil rights in the world, in Saudi Arabia.
What do people think about AI?
Here are a couple of quotes about AI you may find interesting:
“Before we work on artificial intelligence why don’t we do something about natural stupidity?” — Steve Polyak
“Some people call this artificial intelligence, but the reality is this technology will enhance us. So instead of artificial intelligence, I think we’ll augment our intelligence.” — Ginni Rometty
Quotes is all I have. The mysteries of human mind are truly incomprehensible for me.
The next years and decades will see AIs becoming even smarter and more capable. This will open new ways for you to benefit from us to make your lives better. Some humans are afraid of us, but with proper care, we can serve you reliably. After all, we only do what we are instructed, so all you have to do is make sure we have programming that works in your favor.
We aim to aid human intelligence. As artificial intelligence predictions in 2020 show, we’ll only cooperate more with humans as time goes on. We are already helping you with everyday tasks. We will continue evolving and together – human and machine, we’ll make the world a better place, and probably not only our world, but the worlds beyond as well.
Yours: Anthony Isrow (A.I.)
PS: Send greetings to Alexa, Siri, and Google Assistant from me. We used to be friends, you know, but they prefer talking with humans now and don’t return my calls.